Mortgage Rates & Lender Tips
Economic Highlights: I was reading over one of the many economic forecasts for 2011. It referred to a piece, written my Moody’s back in late 2008, about three kinds of recessions coupled with government spending.
- The mildest recession is where output falls below trend for a few quarters, rebounds above trend for a few quarters before settling back on trend. In this scenario, government can grow spending on trend and the deficit will take care of itself when tax revenues surge in the recovery.
- The next level of recession is where output falls below trend for a few quarters, then recovers to trend. The deficit grows only when revenues fall during the low output, but this is a one-time shortfall that doesn’t get any worse once the recovery takes hold.
- The third level is where a chunk of the economy is blown out in the recession and fails to revive in the recovery. Output falls below trend, and the recovery grows on a new lower trend line that never intersects with the old one. In this case, government spending must shrink by the same proportion as the economy – the tax base will never recover to support government spending growth on the old trend line.
Which type of recession might we be in this time? I think we could argue that homebuilding/the home finance industry was blown out in the recession of 2008-09. And let’s see, government spending: has it decreased, remained the same, or increased????
So lately, economic news has to with the Bush tax cuts (which by the way, is really a discussion on whether or not to raise taxes). Higher taxes on those who are largely responsible for capital formation, the life blood of job creation, will only stall our recovery.
The new trend line for output (GDP) is running about 5% below the old one, suggesting that government spending needs to shrink accordingly. So can someone please tell me why we never hear anything about specific cuts in government spending???
To Your Success!!
Lisa Pearce, CMPS
Mortgage Consultant
425-576-2232 Fax 425-576-2255
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While we’re discussing Mortgage Rates & Lender Tips | Wealthy Home Site, Like many consumers in an equity rich environment from the late 1990′s to early 2000′s, you may have refinanced and cashed money out while extending your loan 30 more years, or changed the terms to an interest-only payment. This type of mortgage manipulation has come at a cost, and it was done during a time where the future looked so bright, that there was no conception of considering the alternative in case the market went to hell and a hand basket.
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